Ukrainian intelligence officials are warning of North Korean plans to deploy as many as 30,000 troops to reinforce Russian forces engaged in Ukraine conflict, in what marks an alarming development and further cements Pyongyang’s deepening military alliance with Russia.
Troop Deployments and Timing This report draws its data from analysis by both Ukrainian and South Korean intelligence services, while official South Korean sources previously disclosed that North Korea had sent 10,000-12,000 troops to assist Russian operations in the Kursk region (The Guardian, Reddit.com and Wikipedia have all stated this information). Apnews has also covered this story extensively (www.apnews.com, reddit.com etc).
Ukraine officials now suggest this number could reach as much as 30,000.
Last week, Seoul’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) unveiled plans to send between 5,000-6,000 additional military and construction workers by July or August, according to reports on WashPost, Reuter’s, and Apnews websites.
Ukrainian sources caution that true numbers could be significantly higher; with an estimate of at least 30,000 troops as combat-ready forces and logistical support units combined.
Purpose and Significance North Korea’s increased deployment stems from a mutual defense treaty signed between Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin in June 2024, as per The Times (UK) [+4] abcnews.go.com (+4) reddit (plus 4), Reuter’s (plus 7), En.Wikipedia.Org (+7) and Apnews (plus 7).
This treaty contains provisions for military assistance in case of “armed invasion,” something North Korea is now acting out by sending in troops and heavy arms transfers (Source en.wikipedia.org).
North Korea’s move coincides with Russia’s anticipated large-scale summer offensive in Ukraine, prompting North Korea to provide both manpower and weaponry ranging from long-range artillery such as M-1989 Koksan artillery pieces to drones and ballistic missiles, according to Reuter’s account and Wikipedia sources.
Reports indicate Pyongyang may also deploy 1,000 deminers and 5,000 construction workers to support operations and rebuild efforts in front-line regions (APnews.com).
Casualties, Propaganda and Training Gains
North Korea has already acknowledged combat deaths among its forces by publicly honoring fallen soldiers through state media and public displays of coffins with military decorations on them, as reported on Washingtonpost.com (+1) and NewYorkPost (+1).
Official statements from Pyongyang portray its soldiers as heroes who helped liberate Russian territory through fighting; casualty figures vary widely: Western and South Korean intelligence estimate between 1,200-4,000 dead or wounded (reddit.com/+14), according to Reddit and Politico/reuters respectively ( Reddit/+14 and Politico/reuters respectively).
Ukraine reports even higher tolls.
Pyongyang views this mission as providing critical battlefield experience and operational synergy in exchange for advanced military technology, economic aid, and space launch support (Politico.com; Wikipedia; The Guardian); see also www.politico.com +15, +17 and theguardian.com plus 15
International Concern
This troop buildup has caused great international alarm. South Korea, Washington and Kyiv view it as a significant escalation, fearing further conflict as well as any attempts by North Korea to develop their nuclear and missile programs further.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy recently called upon Western allies to increase pressure on both Moscow and Pyongyang. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned of the risk that conflict might spill beyond Europe.
What Happens Next? With Russia gearing up for offensive operations this summer, additional troop deployments and arms support may become apparent. Both North Korea and Russia have confirmed mutual military cooperation through existing deployments and arms transfers (reuters.com).
Analysts fear that an influx of North Korean personnel could alter the balance of power in this conflict–providing Pyongyang with powerful new capabilities that could prove to be disastrous.