Germany’s top military officer issued a warning that Russia may launch an attack against NATO member states within four years, prompting NATO allies to strengthen their defenses as soon as possible. To address potential aggression by Russian, NATO must increase defense spending immediately, according to German General Staff Chancellor Horst Seehofer and other officers of his ranking.
At the Shangri-La Dialogue defense summit in Singapore, General Carsten Breuer of the German Armed Forces highlighted Russia’s significant military buildup, such as producing approximately 1,500 main battle tanks per year and four million rounds of 152mm artillery ammunition in 2024. He noted that not all this military hardware has been deployed into Ukraine yet; instead it appears to be stored away as potential resources for potential future conflicts. (Reuters +3) per Reuters/Estonia World +3 for BBC.) (Britain +3) BBC; (+1 for Estonian World), as reported in Estonian World +3 before BBC
General Breuer stated, “There is both intent and a buildup of stocks,” adding, “This is what analysts are projecting for 2029 – we must be ready by then.” New York Post, “Estonia World”, BBC and other outlets provided different estimates ranging between 19 and 29 months until 2029 as potential dates. New York Post; Estonia World and BBC published similar stories but gave much earlier estimates (Ny Times 21 November and BBC 19). Consequently they must be prepared to fight tonight or we could lose.” New York Post +9
New York Post *, BBC +9 and Estonian World +9 New York Post *9.5
General Breuer identified the Suwalki Gap — a strategic corridor between Poland and Lithuania bordering Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave in Kaliningrad and Belarus — as an especially vulnerable point that could be targeted in any potential Russian offensive. He pointed out that Baltic States were particularly exposed to this military pressure. On this issue, General Breuer made specific mention of Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave threatening Belarus as well as Poland; for this reason the Suwalki Gap should be protected as it presents potential targets of attack for Russian military pressure from Russia he noted the Suwalki Gap as being particularly vulnerable from their military pressure he said that all five Baltic States could face Russian military pressure, in this instance only one would likely emerge: Suwalki Gap = Suwalki Gap = Polish+2Wall=8 +2amb Brent World… +2Both these points are particularly vulnerable areas to Russian military pressure due to proximity. General Breuer highlighted two specific weak spots within Baltic States that may be vulnerable when it comes to potential attacks from Russian military pressure: this can easily target Estonia +2….Briti….. +2
Estonia World
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The German defense chief highlighted recent incidents which suggested Russia is probing NATO defenses, such as cyberattacks on European public transport systems, sightings of unidentified drones over German power stations and suspected sabotage of cables in the Baltic Sea. Such acts are seen as part of Russia’s strategy of hybrid warfare targeting Western nations – see: BBC (+1), Estonian World (+2) and Wikipedia +1 for more on these events.
General Breuer called on NATO members to intensify military preparedness and strengthen deterrence capabilities as a response to these threats. He stressed the need for increased defense spending and rebuilding military capacities so as to effectively respond to any potential aggressions by Russia or others. When speaking at Estonia World and BBC. +1
Germany has already taken steps towards strengthening its eastern flank with plans to raise its defense budget and deploy 5,000 troops as part of NATO’s efforts.
General Breuer’s warning comes amid growing anxieties among Western intelligence agencies over Russia’s long-term plans. Bruno Kahl, head of Germany’s foreign intelligence service, has stated that Russia could attack NATO by the end of this decade due to their military expansion and aggressive posture. YouTube, The Moscow Times and Reuters.
As tensions escalate, NATO members are anticipated to discuss defense budgets and strategies at their upcoming summit in The Hague. With potential threats mounting against its member states, unity within the alliance remains key in maintaining unity and readiness against potential dangers. The Sun +3 @ BBC.
General Breuer’s remarks emphasize the urgency of confronting these challenges and reinforcing NATO’s commitment to collective defense. All parties involved recognize the threat now facing NATO, and all appreciate that deterrence should evolve into collective defense – this urgency was made abundantly clear during his remarks, according to Reuters.